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KaiserBottomfish.com is owned and operated by John A Kaiser of 370 Park St #7A, Moraga, CA, 94556, USA. He can be reached at (925) 631-9748 by telephone, (925) 631-9753 by fax, or firstname.lastname@example.org by email.
High risk, speculative securities trading on the TSX Venture Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange are the primary focus of KaiserBottomfish.com. We limit our coverage to companies listed on these exchanges because they have adopted fairly good policies regarding disclosure requirements. their enforcement, and the accessibility of such disclosures. We do not follow OTC BB or Pink Sheet companies because the regulatory regime in which they operate does not foster confidence that "what you see is what you get".
It is our opinion that public companies not involved in a revenue generating business should not be evaluated as investments and should instead be viewed as similar to gambling bets. The companies on which we focus are typically early stage ventures seeking to discover an orebody or oilfield, or launch and develop a new technology. Such ventures by nature carry a high failure risk and are intrinsically worthless until the venture is turned into a success. Should it become apparent that a venture is a failure, substantial and rapid price declines are likely. Anybody who cannot accept this risk of total and sudden loss of their capital should not own such securities. Speculators should also be aware that these stocks are subject to big swings in price and liquidity that are not always related to the fundamentals of the underlying venture.
"Success" is understood as having occurred when the company is either bought out by a larger investment grade company, or the venture is transformed into a cash-flow generating business which can be evaluated using traditional investment analysis tools. Our approach is to analyze companies in terms of what a venture might be worth in investment terms if it is successful and the probability of being successful. Our core concept is that the value assigned by the market to a venture is a function of the size of the prize and the probability of its achievability, as perceived by the market. The service we endeavor to provide is to clarify the nature and potential of ventures, and identify those situations where the market either misunderstands the nature of the venture or assigns unduly optimistic or pessimistic success odds to the venture. Our concept of "speculative value" is embodied in the "rational speculation model".
John Kaiser is not a registered investment advisor. No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. While we believe the sources of information to be reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof, nor the statements contained herein. Kaiserbottomfish.com is a commercial enterprise whose revenue is solely derived from subscription fees. It has been designed to serve as a research portal for subscribers, who must rely on themselves or their investment advisors in determining the suitability of any investment decisions they wish to make. Only companies formally classified as "bottom-fish" are subject to buy, hold or sell recommendations made in the context of the Kaiser Bottom-Fishing Strategy. A primary objective of KaiserBottomfish.com is to educate investors about the nature of speculative securities and equip them with the means to develop their own speculative portfolio and strategy using the material and concepts available herein as a guide. John Kaiser does not receive fees directly or indirectly in connection with any comments or opinions expressed in the Kaiser Bottom-Fishing Report. He is himself a user of KaiserBottomfish.com as a resource for his own speculative stock portfolio. Potential conflicts of interest are handled as follows:
Any company mentioned or featured in KaiserBottomFish Online is subject to an ownership disclosure by John Kaiser. Ownership status is disclosed in the company profile section. A footnote at the bottom of individual comments lists the companies mentioned in which John Kaiser had a position at the time of publication. Readers can assume that John Kaiser does not own shares in any company mentioned in the article if the company is not listed in the disclosure footnote.
Only companies formally adopted as "bottom-fish" are subject to "buy", "hold" and "sell" recommendations. All such recommendations are issued in the context of the bottom-fishing strategy, whose core principles are to buy speculative stocks when they are quiet and sell them off in stages once they launch a speculation cycle. A bottom-fish remains eligible for recommendations until it has been closed out. A mock portfolio tracks the performance of these recommendations. John Kaiser does express opinions about whether a non-bottom-fish company (game-fish, diamond stocks) represents good, fair or poor speculative value within the context of the rational speculation model. Such observations, which are generally linked to uncertain future outcomes and involve John Kaiser's interpretation of their probabilities, are valid only at the time made. Subscribers are encouraged to use the rational speculation model and their own research to form their own assessments of speculative value.
The core principles followed by John Kaiser are no front-running of recommendations and no trading against one's own recommendations. Simultaneously owning and recommending the same stock carries an implicit conflict of interest, so in the majority of cases John Kaiser avoids ownership of bottom-fish he follows closely. Non-ownership of a stock should not be interpreted as a personal vote of non-confidence.
Once a company has been adopted as a bottom-fish, John Kaiser may buy or sell the stock in accordance with personal requirements such as the need to rebalance his portfolio, raise capital for alternative investments or uses, or address his own risk tolerances. If a bottom-fish trades above its bottom-fish accumulation range, it is everybody for him or herself unless John Kaiser issues a Spec Cycle Hold recommendation. Once a bottom-fish has attained Spec Cycle status John Kaiser will monitor the company closely and offer readers a selling strategy in the form of a series of partial sells.
John Kaiser will not start selling "Spec Cycle Hold" designated bottom-fish until at least one partial sell has been issued. While John Kaiser prefers to match his personal selling with the recommended selling strategy, there will be times when personal needs unrelated to the outlook for a company require selling a position at a time when it would be unreasonable to recommend such action to a larger audience. In such cases John Kaiser may sell as much as his entire position once a partial sell has been issued. If John Kaiser concludes that the outlook for a Spec Cycle Hold bottom-fish has deteriorated, he will issue a whole or partial sell with an explanation prior to selling any of his position.
The system of partial sells is intended only as a guide to exploiting a company's speculation cycle and need not be followed rigorously by anybody. The nature of speculative securities is such that circumstances affecting a company's outlook change frequently and often abruptly.
Fees for Recommendations
John Kaiser does not accept payment for recommending or "researching" a company either directly or indirectly through mechanisms such as "consulting" fees. Company executives and promoters should not expect an answer to the question "what does it take to get featured in Kaiser Bottom-Fish Online?"
John Kaiser is not involved in any ongoing formal advisory relationship with private parties such as hedge funds.
John Kaiser does give companies permission to reprint previously published material. He does not charge a "reprint fee" to "recover costs". All reprint or online posting permissions are subject to John Kaiser's right to withdraw his permission at anytime.
Brokerage Firm Kickbacks
In the interest of helping speculators trade Canadian securities efficiently KaiserBottomfish.com may provide referrals for brokerage firms that are registered to handle US accounts. Such endorsements are for the brokerage firm in general, not for any particular individual, and relate only to the firm's ability to provide efficient and reasonably priced order execution. No compensation arrangements exist or are accepted for such referrals. The target audience of Kaiser Bottom-Fish Online are sophisticated speculators capable of making their own investment decisions. However, we do recommend that speculators contemplating a sizable investment or sitting on one that has become sizable through capital appreciation consult a registered financial advisor with regard to a strategy suitable for that individual's goals, needs, and circumstances. We do not make such referrals.
John Kaiser does not seek or receive finder's fees related to any financings involving investors other than those of an institutional nature. John Kaiser does accept finder's fees for business-to-business transactions such as property acquisitions, farmout deals, restructuring proposals and control block sales.
John Kaiser does speak at various conferences, sometimes for a fee paid by the conference organizer and never by a third party. The specific content of his presentations is at his sole discretion. He does not get a commission from the conference organizers related to any exhibitors. In his talks he may give preference to exhibitor companies which happen to illustrate the themes of his talks so that delegates can follow up with their own research at the conference.
John Kaiser does participate in property field trips that are sometimes fully paid for by the sponsoring company, but only with the understanding that the nature and content of followup coverage is entirely at his discretion.
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