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 Thu Jan 19, 2012
KRO at Cambridge Vancouver 2012
    Publisher: Kaiser Research Online

 

Kaiser Research Online at Cambridge Vancouver 2012

This weekend January 22-23, 2012 is the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference put on by Joe Martin's Cambridge House. Normally I spend my time at the conference researching companies, but this time I will spend much of my time at my table (T13) to introduce the KRO Search Engine. I have two special sessions planned for KRO members at 10-11 am when the Exhibit Hall opens on each of Sunday and Monday. I will have a large monitor with an Internet hookup so that we can craft searches of KRO. I'll even have a printer for those results whose search criteria were clever enough to limit output to 2 pages. Don't forget to Register if you plan to attend.

My keynote presentation is at 2 pm Sunday in the East Speaker Hall and its topic will be "Trends to Cheer or Fear". My talk will be more about hopes and fears than confident predictions. Once again the future has become a multi-forking path along which we flow rather than drive. The key is to understand the possibilities and be ready to adapt when we discover what fork the path has taken.

As you know I already have 29 Spec Value Hunter picks recycled from the 2009-2011 recommendations I closed out at the end of last year. They cover a broad selection of alternative universes. I will be adding more as the year progresses, emphasizing stories that fit the emerging trends. However, there is only so much time available to track down, properly research, and comprehensively present new picks. The fee you pay for a membership to Kaiser Research Online is partly for access to those ideas, but now with the launch of the KRO Search Engine it is also for a powerful tool that enables you to track down specific stocks that fit the trend that is erupting and there is no time to wait for the analyst to not just do the work but package it up in a form that well exceeds the limit of a tweet. So for those of you who can come to the show, this is a chance for a guided tour.

The KRO Member sessions on Sunday and Monday morning will be a free-for-all where we brainstorm about possible trends, figure out what sort of stocks will prosper or suffer from those trends, and then work together to construct complex queries we will plug into the computer at my table to see if such stocks exist. I will use the live internet connection to retrieve the results, and then use KRO to check them out in greater detail. The twofold purpose is to demonstrate KRO in action by its developer, and use your "forks in the road" hopes or wishes as the gateway to finding stocks I might otherwise never think to drill deeper into.

The Special Parameter selection box is now operational and I suggest that you check out the KRO Search Engine as soon as possible. The Special Parameter options include some mundane items such as excluding all those companies delisted because they were taken over (you can also choose to include only delisted companies in order to discover all those winners Kaiser never recommended), but they mainly consist of higher order work done by us, such as qualifying a company for membership in an index, or in a bottom-fishing edition. (The closed out 2009 and 2010 Bottom-Fish Editions remain full of possibilities.)

What I want to draw your attention to is a temporary special parameter called "Include only Conference Participants" which will limit your results to companies at the Cambridge Vancouver show. The searches that I conduct at my table will be limited to these companies, whose number exceeds 450, because not only do I want to give you an opportunity to visit the booths of the "winners" of our smart searches to do that final 10% of homework, but if any of these happen to catch my interest and are not something I already know about, I too will be sneaking by the booth to do some hands on research.

My workshop, "Searching Kaiser Research Online for Speculative Value", is on Monday at 3:30 pm in the South Speaker Hall, rather inconveniently at the end of the show rather than the start. You may, however, find it a helpful refresher on the tools I have deployed such as the "rational speculation model" and its associated IPV charts, the DCF NPV sensitivity analyses, the "milestone system", and the "People Trees".

Outside the KRO Member sessions I will be assisting Cambridge delegates with the Kaiser Bottom-Fishing Derby whose goal is to discover what companies exhibiting at the Cambridge Vancouver show should be in my 2012 Bottom-Fish Edition which I plan to release in February. For fun I will publish a sub-list highlighting those bottom-fish lurking in plain sight at the Cambridge Vancouver January Show. Since bottom-fishing is never good in June, for the Cambridge Vancouver June Show I may do a Kaiser Spec Value Safari.

At my table outside the KRO Member sessions I will be demonstrating the concepts behind bottom-fishing, showing delegates how to construct a search based on bottom-fish criteria, and running their criteria sets on my computer. I'll have forms with the KRO search criteria on hand. Fill it out, hand it to my assistant, and if the results fit on no more than 2 pages, we'll print it for you so that you check out the company at its booth. Exhibitors are welcome to tick off those criteria which are likely to generate their company, provided that if the search does succeed, they be prepared to explain why that criteria set is a recipe for making money.

Here is an example of the sort of search criteria I would use to find an old fashioned bottom-fish at the Cambridge show: Good structure: less than 20,000,000 shares issued, insiders own at least 10%, Capital: at least $500,000 working capital, a cheap stock price less than $0.30.

Here is a search for a contemporary bottom-fish at Cambridge: Trading below $0.30, less than 100 million shares issued, more than $5 million working capital which is 25% or more of market capitalization, and declared insiders owning at least 25% of issued stock.

Note that for both these bottom-fish searches I have unchecked the project priority boxes and hidden the projects so that the search is independent of projects and will not clutter the results. In the following my search is geared to projects, so I have unhidden the project display and checked the priority boxes so that all projects get included in the search.

Here is a search that seeks what might qualify as an undervalued gold company at Cambridge: At least $5 million working capital, less than 100 million shares fully diluted, declared insiders own at least 10%, a project with gold as a target metal with no base metal by products (gold and silver commodity group), at the PEA, PFS or FS stage, a resource estimate with a rock value at spot prices greater than $50 per tonne, an in situ gross metal value of at least $2 billion, and an implied project value of less than $100 million meaning the market is valuing the project at less than 5% of the contained metal value..

How about something exotic? Graphite is supposed to be the hot topic for 2012 and will be featured in the special Cambridge Battery Mineral Forum. Here is a search for graphite companies.

Or, try something simple like Kaiser 2012 Spec Value Recommendations at Cambridge.

Every time KRO conducts a search it opens a new tab for the results display. This allows you to return to the Search Engine window and refine your search selections. The search is the easy part; the hard part is to drill into the details by clicking on the company name which gets you the KRO company profile. To avoid wasting time, if the initial results are more than a couple pages, I scan the list for stuff I recognize as junk, and tighten the search parameters to get rid of it. However, I've also discovered it pays to have an open mind. If your search criteria are intelligent and you trust them, the KRO Search Engine will help strip away emotional baggage.

You do need to be an active KRO Member and must log on to use the Search Engine.

Looking forward to seeing at least some of you at the conference.

John Kaiser

 
 

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