Conference Presentations and Speeches

Show	Place	Date	Title
Cambridge Vancouver June 2010	Vancouver, Canada	June 7, 2010	Workshop: An Overview of Key Recommendations
Cambridge Vancouver June 2010	Vancouver, Canada	June 6, 2010	Keynote: Supply Issues in the Resource Sector
Hard Assets New York May 2010	New York, USA	May 11, 2010	Keynote: Economic Logic and Security of Supply
Hard Assets New York May 2010	New York, USA	May 10, 2010	Paid Workshop: Investing in the Rare Earth Sector (Members only)
Cambridge Saskatoon May 2010	Saskatoon, Canada	May 7, 2010	Keynote: Economic Logic and Security of Supply
Cambridge Saskatoon May 2010	Saskatoon, Canada	May 7, 2010	Workshop: Understanding Rare Earth Mania
Cambridge Calgary April 2010	Calgary, Canada	April 11, 2010	Keynote: Economic Logic and Security of Supply
Cambridge Calgary April 2010	Calgary, Canada	April 10, 2010	Workshop: Understanding Rare Earth Mania
Cambridge Phoenix February 2010	Phoenix, USA	February 5, 2010	Workshop: Overview of the Rare Earth Sector
Cambridge Phoenix February 2010	Phoenix, USA	February 4, 2010	Keynote: Strategies for a Fragmenting Future
Cambridge Vancouver January 2010	Vancouver, Canada	January 18, 2010	Workshop: The 2009 and 2010 Bottom-Fish Editions
Cambridge Vancouver January 2010	Vancouver, Canada	January 18, 2010	Workshop: Overview of the Rare Earth Sector
Cambridge Vancouver January 2010	Vancouver, Canada	January 17, 2010	Keynote: The New Crisis in Raw Materials Supply
Quebec Exploration 2009	Quebec City, Canada	November 24, 2009	Security of Supply in a Changing World
Hard Assets November 2009	San Francisco, USA	November 22, 2009	Security of Supply in a Changing World
Academy & Finance November 2009	Geneva & Zurich, Switzerland	November 17-18, 2009	Global Trends & their Implications for Gold
Academy & Finance November 2009	Geneva & Zurich, Switzerland	November 17-18, 2009	Valuing Pre-Production Gold Companies
Cambridge Montreal November 2009	Montreal, Canada	November 7, 2009	Security of Supply in a Changing World
Cambridge Montreal November 2009	Montreal, Canada	November 6, 2009	Navigating Rare Earth Mania
Critical & Strategic Metals 2009	Washington DC, USA	October 22, 2009	Rational Speculation Model: the Valuation of Pre-Production Resource Projects
Cambridge Toronto September 2009	Toronto, Canada	September 27, 2009	Making Sense of the Emerging Rare Earth Mania
Cambridge Toronto September 2009	Toronto, Canada	September 26, 2009	Security of Supply in a Changing World
Academy & Finance Intelligent Resource Investing	Geneva & Zurich, Switzerland	June 10 & 11, 2009	Forces Shaping the Resource Sector in the next Decade
Cambridge Vancouver June 2009	Vancouver, Canada	June 7, 2009	Keynote: Security of Supply in a New World Order
Cambridge Vancouver June 2009	Vancouver, Canada	June 7, 2009	Workshop: Designing a Personal Bottom-Fish Portfolio
Hard Assets New York May 2009	New York, USA	May 12, 2009	Expert View: Understanding Gold Strategies
Cambridge SaskRocks May 2009	Saskatoon, Canada	May 9, 2009	Keynote: Looking Beyond the Slump
Cambridge Calgary April 2009	Calgary, Canada	April 5, 2009	Keynote: Exploiting the Bottom-Fishing Window
Cambridge Calgary April 2009	Calgary, Canada	April 4, 2009	Workshop: Bottom-Fishing Strategies for the Gold Sector
PDAC Toronto March 2009	Toronto, Canada	March 2, 2009	PDAC Diamond Technical Session: A market pricing model for publicly traded diamond exploration companies
PDAC Toronto March 2009	Toronto, Canada	March 1, 2009	PDAC Talk: Bottom-Fishing Heaven or Hell?
Cambridge Phoenix February 2009	Phoenix, USA	February 22, 2009	Keynote: Passing the Baton from Base to Precious Metals
Cambridge Vancouver January 2009	Vancouver, Canada	January 26, 2009	Keynote: Obvious Trends Uncertain Timelines
Cambridge Vancouver January 2009	Vancouver, Canada	January 25, 2009	Workshop: Tax Free Bottom-Fishing
Hard Assets San Francisco 2008	San Francisco, USA	December 1, 2008	Expert View: Bottom-Fishing after the Tsunami
Hard Assets San Francisco 2008	San Francisco, USA	November 30, 2008	Workshop: People based Bottom-Fishing
Quebec Exploration 2008	Quebec City, Canada	November 25, 2008	What's in store for 2009?
EdelMetall & Rohstoff Messe 2008	Munich, Germany	November 7, 2008	Evaluation & Analysis of Resource Juniors
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference	Toronto, Canada	October 5, 2008	Keynote: Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Bull Market
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference	Toronto, Canada	October 4, 2008	Workshop: Bottom-Fishing Tools
Academy & Finance Base Metals Investing Conference	Zurich & Geneva, Switzerland	Sept 30 & Oct 2, 2008	How to invest in base metal companies?
Resource Investor Forum 2008	St. John's, Newfoundland	September 16, 2008	Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Bull Market
Hard Assets Las Vegas 2008	Las Vegas, USA	September 9, 2008	Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Bull Market
Hard Assets Las Vegas 2008	Las Vegas, USA	September 9, 2008	Workshop: Bottom-Fishing for Pounds & Ounces
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference	Calgary, Canada	April 12, 2008	Keynote: Exploiting the Disconnect
		April 13, 2008	Workshop: Bottom-Fishing and the Cash Vanishing Act
The Calgary keynote speech continued the theme from the Vancouver and Phoenix speeches with an increased emphasis on the growing disconnect between the strength in commodity prices and the worsening slump for the resource juniors. Although metal prices, in particular copper, the bellweather for the business cycle, are making new highs or holding at levels well above their historic long term averages, juniors with pounds or ounces in the group are being priced as if their advanced projects are dead in the water, an outlook that reflects a scenario where metal prices retreat to levels that prevailed prior to the start of the commodity boom in 2003. This creates an extraordinary bottom-fishing opportunity hinged on the macro question of whether or not the rest of the world, in particular the BRIC nations, have sufficient momentum to survive a US recession whose severity will reflect the end of an era of debt fueled consumption that reached its climax with the securitized mortgage run from 1998-2007. If it becomes apparent that the BRICs will survive, it will signal a multi-decade period of economic growth that will eventually pull the United States out of its hole. This will translate into paradigm shift by Wall Street from viewing the raw materials supply sector as a deep cyclical to a growth sector. When this inflection happens, and there are signs that Wall Street is warming up to this idea, the junior resource sector glass will switch from half empty to half full very sharply. The result will be a sharp upwards repricing of the juniors, a doubling to tripling before any paper starts coming into the market. Early 2009 after the US election is the most probable time for this inflection to sweep up the juniors, but, because markets anticiptate the future, it could happen any time. Q1 2008 was the media headline intensive waking up to the magnitude of the credit crunch, culiminating with the peak subprime reset month. From here on it will be a less sensationalistic flow of worsening economic conditions that will force the discourse to address the path out of the mess. John Kaiser continues to hold the view that the need for infrastructure renewal in the OECD, the inevitable rise of the China Price to levels that restore two-way trade, and rising footprint consciousness will push the United States into a transformative infrastructure renewal campaign wrapped in the language of the green economy. Raw materials will be at elevated price levels for many years, and what lies ahead for the resource juniors is a race to production that will generate manic conditions. The Calgary Workshop first explained the research tools available through KBFO, summarized the argument from the keynote speech as to why this is a good bottom-fishing time, discussed the criteria for a good bottom-fish, described what types of bottom-fish one should be accumulating now, explained how cash can vanish and turn a bottom-fish into a stinky fish, and finished off with a trashing of the TSXV capital pool production machine which is anathema to bottom-fishing.
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference	Phoenix, USA	February 9, 2008	Keynote: Missed the Bull? Now's your chance!
The theme of the Phoenix speech was similar to that of the Vancouver speech, except that it included an explanation why the record high price for gold had failed to excite the market, which also served as part of an argument that gold was set to break through $1,000 and mount a jaw-dropping assault on $2,000. The speech also included additional material which points out that the world of real things seems to be marching forward totally oblivious to the crisis within the world of paper things. The main point was that the resource sector will turn into a bull market within an overall longer term equity and real estate bear market that will allow the juniors to bounce back with a vengeance once the market decides it has enough evidence to embrace the Asia driven super cycle as strong enough to survive a slowdown in the United States and the rest of the OECD. That this was not a consensus view at the conference was evident in the rather unfamiliar name of "Mr. Happy" people were using to refer to John Kaiser. He is more remembered as the "Mr. Unhappy" who in April 1997 loudly proclaimed that the juniors were headed for a long and difficult bear market while the majority believed that Bre-X was just a setback that would be shrugged off soon enough.
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference	Vancouver, Canada	January 20, 2008	Keynote: Is the long awaited rapture just around the corner?
The resource sector has been under pressure since the subprime crisis broke into the open during August 2007 as the cyclical bears fret that a looming US recession will pull the rug out from under the Asian super cycle and deliver the commodity price bust the market has been fretting about since early 2004. The title is a play on the type of rapture anticipated by fundamentalists in the wake of the apocalypse the majority of newsletter writers are predicting, and the kind of rapture I am predicting will engulf resource sector speculators during the next 18 months as the apocalypse fails to materialize and resource juniors go to the moon. The juniors are roadkill in the path of the train wreck created by an artificial economic boom created in the United States through the post dot-com Greenspan era of low interest rates and easy credit made possible through the innovation of securitized mortgage debt peddled to financial institutions and wealthy investors under the false banner of "better returns at lower risk". A reverse wealth effect is now at work as real estate prices retreat and Americans contemplate an economic future where the home construction boom is finished, manufacturing has been lured abroad by the China Price, and government debt has been piled up through homeland security and Iraq war spending. The real question is to what extent the Asian economic boom remains dependent on the strength of a US economy seemingly fated to wither away. My interpretation is that not only does the Asian boom have sufficient internal momentum to absorb through domestic spending any slackening of demand from American consumers, thus avoiding a serious implosion, but that the United States will buy itself time to keep itself busy while the China Price rises sufficiently over the next decade to justify redistribution of manufacturing around the globe. The US will dig itself out of a recession by embarking on a green economy driven campaign of transformative infrastructure renewal that will keep Americans employed while creating a legacy for future generations, and showing the way for Asia to avoid polluting itself and the planet to death as its per capita footprint expands toward that taken for granted by the OECD. If these dual forces come together, raw material supply will continue to be in deficit for another decade. While resource stocks are vulnerable to being pushed lower during the interim as these assets get dumped by investors squeezed by the lack of liquidity for their supposedly less risky financial assets, they will turn around sharply when new money, driven in part by sovereign entities, sweeps in to buy up raw material related assets in a quest to achieve long term security of supply. When this happens, amid base metal prices staying at current levels or even drifting higher, there will be a global realization that for the raw material producers this time is different, and the wall of worry that has characterized this resource boom since 2003 will vanish as mining companies get repriced as growth stocks. At the same it will become apparent that the hegemonic dominance of the United States is fading, and as the world enters a multi-decade transition period during which the US dollar loses its benchmark status for the value of all things, demand for gold ownership will skyrocket, gold will breach $1,000 in 2008, and move sharply towards $2,000. All of this translates into a fabulous opportunity to buy juniors whose markets are stressed by circumstances for which the sector bears no responsibility.
Cambridge 2007 Resource Investment Conference	Toronto, Canada	October 22, 2007	Keynote: The Race to Production and the Revival of Exploration Plays
Presents the idea that it will be several years before new metal supply reaches the sort of surplus conditions that could bust prices, but argues that the super cycle represented by the Rise of Asia will continue to build demand. Argues that during the next couple years we could see base metal prices spike to new records, and that the new long term equilibrium to which they settle will be substantially higher to the levels that prevailed during the bear market years of the late nineties. This is creating a race to production among juniors who have "pounds in the ground" projects. Argues that there is a risk that the subprime mortgage reset problem could unleash a real estate collapse unless the investors who hold mortgage securities take a bath and the default/foreclosure cycle is brought under control. If a US real estate collapse develops it would likely break the super cycle. Presents the idea that the dual problem of aging OECD infrastructure and global infrastructure is unleashing a green revolution whose footprint consciousness will drive a capital spending boom in the OECD that incorporates new concepts and technology involving durability, efficiency and renewable energy which will provide the jobs that keep OECD residents busy while we wait for a growing Chinese middle class to push up the China Price to levels where global trade ceases to be a one way traffic. This "green economy" renewal process will generate new raw material demand from the OECD. Argues that gold will flourish as investors seek an alternative asset class to store their wealth as we enter a transition phase during which the United States loses its dominant economic status and generates uncertainty about what the world will look like 20 years from now. In other words, gold is going up because the world is prospering and the US dollar is slowly losing its benchmark status. Finally makes the case that the volatility of base metal prices during the next few years will spark interest in exploration discovery plays whose grades are economic at prices well below current prices, and consequently will attract speculators who are indifferent to commodity price fluctuations and are focused on "how big and how valuable".
Cambridge 2007 Resource Investment Conference	Toronto, Canada	October 22, 2007	Workshop: Is McFauld's Lake shaping up into a Great Canadian Area Play?
Reviews what makes a Great Canadian Area Play, explains how the nickel-copper-PGM discovery by Noront at McFauld's Lake so far meets all the criteria except the critical one of being off-the-scale world class such as Voisey's Bay was, and shows how to apply the rational speculation model in a Great Canadian Area Play.
Academy and Finance/Carrierre Conference	Geneva, Switzerland	October 4, 2007	Base Metals Investing
Small venue conference attended by 100 plus wealth managers which featured John Kaiser and David Coffin providing overviews of the copper, nickel and zinc markets along with strategies for investing in juniors, interspersed with corporate presentations by 7 companies, with Kaiser and Coffin posing questions to the corporate speaker on issues not covered by the presentation. The slide show contains the slides that accompanied John Kaiser's presentations.
Academy and Finance/Carrierre Conference	Zurich, Switzerland	October 2, 2007	Base Metals Investing
Small venue conference attended by 100 plus wealth managers which featured John Kaiser and David Coffin providing overviews of the copper, nickel and zinc markets along with strategies for investing in juniors, interspersed with corporate presentations by 7 companies, with Kaiser and Coffin posing questions to the corporate speaker on issues not covered by the presentation. The slide show contains the slides that accompanied John Kaiser's presentations.

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